June 19, 1987

Larry Evans Reno, Nevada

Dear Larry:

Thank you very much for your letter of May 29 and the inclosed
literature on CHESSGATE. The latter is a sad commentary on the
state of US chess and the USCF. I am very much afraid that the
coming elections will not change the situation much. Most of
the voting delegates are the clubhouse political types who will
elect their own kind to the Policy Board. And those on the PB
will be ever jealous of their small powers and suspicious of
the masters. I hope I am wrong about the election, so let's
wait and see.

Re: the Kalme claims, I was not convinced by his arguments and
I don't think he convinced anybody. At that time (1975) I made
an extensive probabilistic analysis of the situation which
compared various likely events under the two systems of the
match and without doubt the Fischer conditions favored the
champion --- and in retrospect rightly so. This analysis runs
to eight pages and if you are interested I could send you a
copy. A shorter version appeared in the magazine CHESS but
unfortunately I have no copy either of the article or of the
magazine.

Further in retrospect/there is a simple argument in favor of
the Fischer conditions without any elaborate probabilistic
calculations. I owe credit to one of our local players (Al
Losoff) for putting me on the train of thought which I
regrettably missed twelve years ago. It goes as follows:

1. If the match at any time stands at 9:9 it indicates an
equality between the contestants.

2. Thus the next decisive game could go either way since the
contestants have equal probabilities of gaining the next
decisive game.

3. Thus a win by either player in the next decisive game shows
no superiority any more than a single throw of a coin shows a
superiority of heads or tails.

4. A 9:9 result then is properly declared a drawn match since
the challenger has shown no clear superiority.

I find this intuitive approach more convincing than any fancy
probabilistic calculation and I only wish I had had the insight
to see it 12 years ago. Who knows, we might have seen a
Fischer-Karpov match. Or would Bobby have found other excuses
for not playing?

Cordially,

/s/ Arpad E. Elo

PS: Dr Euwe was Correct in his remark. AEE